[SUMMARY & OUTCOME] From UNOC-3 to COP31: Science Evidence, Pacific Resilience and Southern Connections

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Dear readers, before you read this summary, please find the outcome of this Forum: the Noumea Statement. Please feel free to share

[SUMMARY]

Nouméa, 2 to 4 September 2026

For three days, Nouméa brought together researchers, policymakers, practitioners, community organisations and young leaders from New Caledonia, Australia, Aotearoa New Zealand, Fiji, Tonga, Papua New Guinea, and beyond. The event, "From UNOC-3 to COP31: Science Evidence, Pacific Resilience and Southern Connections", was organised by AFRAN (Australian French Association for Research and Innovation), which was celebrating its tenth anniversary, in partnership with CRESICA and hosted by IRD and Université de la Nouvelle-Calédonie (UNC). The forum has been funded by the Government of New Caledonia, Banque de Nouvelle-Calédonie, CNRS Oceania and La French Tech Nouvelle-Calédonie. Its aim was to link the ocean agenda that came out of the UN Ocean Conference in Nice (2025) with COP31, whose negotiations Australia will lead, with a pre-COP in Fiji in early October. The discussions will feed into a « Nouméa Statement ».

The tone was set from the opening session. Johanito Wamytan, member of the Government of New Caledonia, asked the question that ran through the whole forum: what will remain of our commitments in five or ten years' time? Research needs to move from being conducted in New Caledonia to being designed for it and for the Pacific, and the region should stop being presented as only vulnerable. It is also a region of knowledge and solutions.

Cael Normandon, speaking on behalf of the Southern Province, noted that three quarters of New Caledonians live in the province, mostly near the coast, and that it protects 61% of its territory through 55 protected areas and monitors reef health at 43 sites. With a population of only 250,000, he called for common solutions to be sought at the scale of the Pacific. Arnaud Lauzier, Deputy Secretary-General of the French High Commission in New Caledonia, highlighted the French State's support for research through France 2030, the Pacific Fund and the Green Fund, as well as regional projects such as CLIPSA and MaHeWa, and presented innovation, notably through La French Tech and its Pacific Tech Hub, as the natural continuation of research.

Day 1: The ocean, from Antarctica to the atolls

Why ocean science matters

Jérôme Aucan, Head of the Pacific Community Centre for Ocean Science (SPC), laid out the essentials. Excluding Papua New Guinea, 97% of Pacific Islanders live within 10 km of the coast. In Tuvalu, with 30 cm of sea-level rise, a one-in-100-year event becomes a one-in-10-year event. With 70 cm, it recurs every one to five years, and annual losses would then exceed the country's GDP. Warming is also pushing tuna stocks out of Pacific Island countries' exclusive economic zones. He drew two messages from this. First, ocean observation must be sustained over the long term, because "AI is only as good as what you train it on". Second, we should be wary of marine geoengineering, rebranded as "marine carbon dioxide removal", which is likely to be pushed hard at COP31.

Antarctica, the planet's heartbeat

The first panel, moderated by Steven Chown (Monash University), showed that what happens in Antarctica does not stay in Antarctica. Sophie Cravatte (IRD) noted that marine heatwaves have doubled since 1982 and that August 2026 was the warmest month ever recorded for the ocean. She also pointed to a major risk: the United States provides more than 90% of ocean observations in the tropics, and the current political context is putting the whole system at risk. France and Australia, the second and fourth largest contributors, have a role to play in stepping up.

Felicity McCormack presented the IPCC projections. They point to around 80 cm of sea-level rise by 2100, without ruling out 2 m by 2100 or 5 m by 2150. The good news is that the coming decades are fairly predictable, which leaves a window for planning. Karen Palmer stressed the importance of local factors: in Samoa, land subsidence since the earthquake adds to rising seas. David Gwyther reminded the audience that the overturning circulation, which drives global currents, is slowing, and that its effects on the Pacific remain poorly understood.

A key question then came from the floor. Vili Iese explained that when he returned to Samoa, almost no one had heard of this research. Jérôme Aucan responded by making the case for regional organisations (SPC, SPREP, FFA). In his view, they are the best bridge between research and governments that do not have the capacity to manage fifteen university partnerships at once. The French Embassy announced a dedicated call for projects linking the Pacific and Antarctica.

Risks and adaptation in island systems

Vili Iese, who moderated the second panel, summed up the situation with an image: "My urgency in Tuvalu is already beyond red. It's purple urgency." Seona Meharg (CSIRO) presented adaptation pathways, which sequence decisions over time to keep options open in the face of uncertainty. Adi Susu showed, from her mangrove research, that not all mangroves have the same carbon value. Delphine Dissard (IRD) explained how sediment cores reveal the impact of mechanised mining on a New Caledonian lagoon: around ten years in which life almost disappeared, followed by a partial recovery once environmental laws were adopted. Rémi Andreoli (Tauha) presented "virtual sentinel stations" that use satellites to detect coastal erosion continuously. Finally, two PhD candidates from the HOPE project presented an instrumented buoy off Nouméa, which they describe as the first of its kind in the world.

The final word went to Vili Iese: co-design, co-create, co-implement and co-evaluate with communities. He also presented the YES project, which will bring two white papers to the pre-COP. The first addresses non-economic loss and damage, the second the links between climate, culture, food and non-communicable diseases.

Day 2: Concrete responses

"Ocean action is climate action"

For Cameron Diver (Island Conservation), the Pacific is not just an early warning system for the planet. It is also an early solution system. We no longer need to prove that the ocean matters, he said: COP31 must deliver an "implementation breakthrough", not another round of pledges. The figures he presented were striking. Around restored islands, reefs hold more than 50% more fish biomass and recover two to three times faster from bleaching. He also raised the idea of floating rahui attached to whales, which would protect a species wherever it travels rather than a fixed area.

Oceans, fisheries and health: a One Health approach

This panel, moderated by Sheridan Rabbitt, revealed some unexpected connections. Thierry Jauffrais (IFREMER) has identified Gambierdiscus polynesiensis, the most toxic of the microalgae responsible for ciguatera, in New Caledonia, the first record outside French Polynesia. He also noted that a healthy reef greatly reduces the risk. Amy McLennan described the harmful algal bloom in South Australia in 2025. It covered more than 20,000 km², and it took a year to understand what it was, because there was no health response framework in place.

Valentin Thépot presented the circular Indigenous aquaculture being developed on Groote Eylandt to prepare for life after mining. Séverine Bouard (Lincoln University) highlighted that households combining several livelihood activities, and gift-giving networks, are sources of resilience. In New Caledonia, taking part in non-market exchange is even associated with lower consumption of sugary and salty foods. "Fish feed people, but they also feed relationships."

Protecting marine ecosystems

Constance Rambourg (University of Wollongong) summed up the panel in one line: "We should not mistake the target for the goal. The goal is not 30%, it's a healthy ocean and healthy communities." Fish don't read management plans. It is people who need to be brought on board, and without equity, compliance collapses.

Several concrete initiatives were presented. Gaël Lecellier (UNC) presented PANORAMICS, a network of nine institutions across eight Pacific countries and territories that aims to harmonise "omics" methods for biodiversity monitoring. Junior Novera presented the Kunua conservation area in Bougainville: more than 300,000 hectares "from ridge to reef", led by communities who chose conservation over mining. He also described the first category 5 cyclone in the island's history, in April, which washed away 50 to 100 metres of coastline. Sylvain Agostini and Riccardo Rodolfo-Metalpa presented "natural analogues", sites that already experience the conditions expected in 2100. The corals of Bouraké Bay, for example, withstood the 2016 bleaching event. Yet almost none of these sites are protected.

Nature-based solutions

Cyril Marchand (UNC) explained that mangroves are migrating both poleward and landward, but that urbanisation blocks their way, as at Rivière Salée in Nouméa. Fanny Houlbrèque (IRD) presented a remarkable experiment: corals fed with diazotrophic plankton all survived heat stress, while the unfed corals died. Melanie Bishop (Macquarie University) presented her "living seawalls". These textured panels host up to three times more biodiversity and provide microhabitats up to 10°C cooler. Her main obstacle was not technical: it took two years to obtain the first permit.

Vili Iese raised a blind spot. After a cyclone, no one funds the restoration of nature-based solutions. He suggested looking at parametric insurance for mangroves.

Energy transition: biofuels in their rightful place

Philippe Mehrenberger (EEC) presented the Lifou experience. The island already produces around 60% of its electricity from renewables. For one month, it ran on 100% renewable energy using a biofuel made from used cooking oil (HVO), with no changes to the engines, but at a 45% higher cost. Ken Baldwin reminded the audience that the cost of solar panels has fallen by a factor of 2,000 since 1976. Caroline Nicolleau (ADEME) pointed to the absence of an energy-saving policy in New Caledonia. Philippe Mehrenberger also described a copra oil project in Vanuatu that was abandoned because the price of copra was set… in Rotterdam.

Yann Genay (Aircalin) closed the panel with a clear message: biofuels must be reserved for uses where there is no alternative, namely aviation and shipping. For islands that depend on air travel, this is vital.

Financing the move from knowledge to action

Dominique Benzaken introduced the "blue finance ecosystem". Slides from Corey Huber, who could not attend, showed that adaptation receives a tiny share of climate finance, and islands even less. Jeff Noro (Melanesia Biocultural Network) told the story of the Carteret Islands, whose people had to relocate without any climate finance and founded their own NGO, Tulele Peisa ("riding the waves on our own"). His hope is that we now move to "riding the waves together". He also noted that in Melanesia, more than 90% of land and resources are held under customary tenure, while international finance only deals with states.

Funders presented their tools. The French Embassy offers seed funding for scientific cooperation, with new calls planned for 2026. AFD presented the CLIPSA project, which improved the resolution of climate projections from 20 km to 2.5 km, as well as the Kiwa Initiative. CNRS highlighted its international networks, its foundation and its open science policy. The Government of New Caledonia presented its Territory of Innovation programme, which has funded 28 projects. All ran into the same obstacles: small island markets, the lack of local venture capital and, above all, the absence of shared baseline environmental data. Without this data, environmental impact cannot be demonstrated to investors.

Day 3: Knowledge, languages and Pacific leadership

Four knowledge systems, one shared goal

Yvy Oedin, co-president of Changemakers New Caledonia, gave one of the most memorable talks of the forum. For her, science, traditional knowledge, community knowledge and youth are four complementary knowledge systems, and none should be treated as secondary. She also criticised tokenistic consultation: too often, decisions are made after meeting young people, not with them. The barriers are real: language, since regional opportunities are mostly in English, a lack of recognition, and self-confidence. Her association responds in part by pairing young New Caledonians with young Australians for regular conversation practice.

Education and ocean literacy

Malik Oedin (Gardiens des Îles) compares his mentoring of young graduates to pearl farming: find a grain of sand, protect it, challenge it and let it shine. Conrad Pilditch (University of Auckland) explained how fifty years of monitoring in New Zealand's first legislated marine reserve served as evidence in a court case that led to the closure of an overfished rock lobster fishery. Catherine Sabinot (IRD) described a shift in vocabulary led by Kanak customary authorities, who prefer to speak of "ancestral species" rather than "totems". Florence Boulard (James Cook University) argued that we cannot care about what we do not know. She is advocating for engagement with the Pacific to become a priority of the Australian school curriculum.

Vili Iese illustrated a new challenge. In Fiji, a traditional cyclone forecasting index based on breadfruit fruiting proved accurate in 2016 but wrong in 2020. Traditional knowledge was built in a climate that is now changing, and it needs to be revisited with communities.

Languages, memory and climate justice

Frankie Thoral (University of Waikato) presented "marine dark waves", sediment plumes that plunge the seafloor into darkness for weeks at a time. He also raised the question of Indigenous data sovereignty. Anne-Laure Dotte (UNC) reminded the audience that one in five of the world's languages is spoken in the Pacific. She praised the initiative of Cèmuhî speakers who, together with the Kanak Language Academy, have coined new words to talk about climate change. Fabrice Wacalie (UNC) called for schools to give real space to New Caledonia's 28 Kanak languages: "A story is not only a story, it carries knowledge."

Lilieta Soakai (Pacific Islands Students Fighting Climate Change) recalled the decisive role that testimonies played in the campaign that led to the International Court of Justice's advisory opinion on climate change. Around sixty stories were gathered across seven countries. She warned against extractive practices, harm to dignity and "storyteller fatigue", where people are repeatedly asked to recount their tragedy. In her view, knowledge holders must be recognised as co-authors, not simply as sources of data.

Key takeaways

In her closing synthesis, Katherine Daniell, President of AFRAN, drew out several common threads:

sustaining observation and learning over time, across all knowledge systems;
building on regional organisations and trusted networks;
recognising the Indigenous, community and youth leadership that already exists;
acknowledging the reality of loss without giving up on hope;
adapting solutions to each context rather than scaling up a single model everywhere;
creating "refuges" for ecosystems, cultures and languages.

In a live poll, the room placed respect and reciprocity at the top of the guiding principles, and Indigenous communities and young people at the top of those who should shape decisions.

The message for COP31 fits in a single sentence: the science is there, the solutions exist, and the Pacific is now calling for implementation that matches the scale of the challenge, designed with the Pacific rather than for it.